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Flash Flood Warning and Weather Alert Issued With Fourth of July In Jeopardy

Brenda A. Nemcek

Wednesday, July 2, 2014 • 7:04pm

WARREN, NJ - Hurricane season has officially begun, and it appears that it may just put a damper on some of the Fourth of July activities planned along the East Coast. A flash flood warning has been issued for the Warren area until 11:15 p.m. on Wednesday, July 2.

A year after a micro-burst tornado hit Warren, tropical storm "Arthur" is meandering its way up from Florida and it is expected that the storm will combine with a cold front and already predicted rains to create some rough surf through Friday.

http://Www.thealternativepress.com/towns/warren/articles/weather-alert-microburst-tornado

The National Weather Service has issued rip current warnings along New York beaches from Rockaway to Fire Island and along the Jersey shore through Thursday. Wave heights of four to seven feet, along with wind could "pose a hazard." Beachgoers are urged to enter the ocean only in areas where lifeguards are present.

An update from the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. Wednesday called for Arthur to be declared a hurricane within 24 and 36 hours, meaning its sustained winds would top 74 m.p.h.
 
But New Jersey forecasters have grown more optimistic that at least part of the Independence Day holiday on Friday could be salvaged. A National Hurricane Center rainfall potential map did not list any impacts in New Jersey.
 
"If the tropical system takes a northeastward turn late in the week, as we suspect, rain and thunderstorms will begin to shift eastward and out to sea Friday afternoon and evening so that the weather improves for fireworks Friday night from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said in a post to the company's website.
 
"The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then gradually accelerate northeastward," between a trough and a strengthening ridge to the east, the hurricane center said in its update.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day on Thursday, July 3, and heavy rains may bring one-half to three-quarters of an inch to the area. The chance of rain is 70 percent.

The chance of rain decreases to 50 percent on the Fourth of July. According to Severe Weather NJ, "The holiday weekend is actually looking downright awesome starting Friday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms the primary concern.”

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